Triathlon Group’s Industrial Report – Autumn 2025/26
Swedish industrial sentiment has turned more cautious for 2025 as order intake and revenue expectations are revised down versus spring, pressured by weakening demand and trade-policy volatility. Yet the 2026 outlook is clearly brighter: companies anticipate rising order intake and sales, gradual margin recovery, steady headcount, and disciplined, productivity-focused investments, as reflected in Triathlon’s Industrial Index.
You can access the full report here: Verkstadsrapporten Hösten 2025
2025: Muted optimism and caution
After a strong start to the year, expectations for the remainder of 2025 have softened. Roughly a third of companies now foresee declines in both order intake and revenue, while margins are mixed – exporters in particular feel the squeeze from the stronger Swedish krona. Hiring plans edge up but remain cautious, and capex is largely unchanged and aimed at productivity and efficiency.
2026: Positive outlook and gradual recovery
Confidence builds toward 2026: 65% of companies expect higher order intake and 61% expect higher sales, with only 3% anticipating lower operating margins. Most plan to meet growth through higher capacity utilization and productivity rather than a larger workforce, with investment interest ticking up but staying discipline
More companies affected by tariffs and trade barriers
The share of companies reporting direct effects from new tariffs has jumped from 4 in 10 this spring to 7 in 10 this autumn, yet most have not activated concrete responses – 55% report no short-term actions and 61% lack long-term plans. Firms are mainly making minor price or contract adjustments while monitoring a more volatile, regionalizing trade environment – raising the risk that uncertainty itself dampens demand.
About Triathlon Group’s Industrial Report
Triathlon’s Industrial Report surveys the 100 largest Swedish manufacturing companies, providing a forecast for the sector. It highlights expectations for order intake, revenue, operating margins, workforce, and investments. The results are compiled into Triathlon’s Industrial Index, which places industry sentiment in a historical context.